Sprint 2025 Update

The Official start of the 2025 sprint is rapidly approaching!

We held the first IMDC in 2024 with the challenge of predicting dengue incidence in Brazil for the 2024 and 2025 seasons. Six teams participated in the Dengue 2024 Sprint with a variety of modelling approaches, testing innovative tools and methodologies to understand dengue dynamics in Brazil. All models were registered on the Mosqlimate platform, which is designed to facilitate visualization and comparison of forecasting models. This year, we expect an even larger set of methodologies.

Last year, we requested forecasts for only five states, but this year, participants will have to submit forecasts for all states in the country. Furthermore, last year we only requested the 90% prediction intervals, while this year we will request the 50%, 80%, 90% and 95% intervals, in addition to the median.

For training the models, we provided epidemiological data, with probable dengue cases by municipality and epidemiological week, and additional datasets with demographic, climate and environmental data also aggregated by epidemiological week, state and Brazilian municipalities when possible. The participants can also use others’ dataset as long as it was documented and shared with the other participating teams. For evaluation, comparison and classification of the models, we will use, as in 2024, the logarithmic score, the CRPS (Continuous Ranked Probability Score) and the interval score. For the 2025 edition, we will use interval scoring with weights, but we are studying the possibility of implementing other metrics.

Remember, there is still time to share Sprint 2025 with your colleagues and at your institution. There are generally two ways to participate in the Sprint: by registering a team from your institution or among colleagues, or by joining the discord channel to look for a team with which you can collaborate. In this space, we also share news about the Sprint, and demo videos on how to use the mosqlimate API to load models and forecasts. Feel free to ask questions to the organizers or to the participating teams.

The next step will take place on 05/15/2025 with a call for participation. Here is a preview of the event schedule:

Deadline for submission of forecasts (validation datasets) — June 30, 2025

Webinar (Validation round results) — July 30, 2025

Deadline for submission of forecasts (2026 forecasts) — September 23, 2025

Presentation of the ensemble model — October 15, 2025

A technical note will be published by Infodengue, in Portuguese, with the results of the ensemble model, and all sprint participants will be recognized. Also, there will be an honorable mention for the models classified at the E-Surveillance Congress, which will take place in November 2025, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

I hope to see you at the event!

All the Best,

Fabiana Ganem Chair of the organizing committee