Results - IMDC 2024

The 2024 edition of the First Infodengue-Mosqlimate Dengue Challenge (IMDC Sprint) concluded with a final webinar held on October 31, 2024. Six teams participated in the first edition of the Sprint.

💻 Technical Results and Documentation

Detailed documentation, including the performance metrics for individual and ensemble models, is publicly available on the project’s GitHub repository:

1. Individual Model Validation Results

• Repository Documentation: The main findings, key validation metrics, and performance tables for all predictive models are presented here: https://github.com/Mosqlimate-project/sprint-template/blob/main/scores/scores.md

2. Ensemble Model Analysis

The project utilized an ensemble model (a combination of top-performing models) to create a potentially more robust and accurate forecast.

• Ensemble Documentation: The methodology and specific performance results of the ensemble are documented in this paper: Leveraging probabilistic forecasts for dengue preparedness and control: the 2024 Dengue Forecasting Sprint in Brazil.

📈 Official Report and Policy Scenarios

The insights derived from the ensemble modeling were used to generate the “Relatório Técnico Infodengue”, a high-impact technical report for the Brazilian Ministry of Health. This report provided vital scenarios for the next dengue season (2024-2025), aiding public health preparedness.

• Technical Report (Portuguese Only): The official report detailing the seasonal scenarios is available on Zenodo: https://zenodo.org/records/13929005

Presentation of Report Results (Multilingual)

The seminar presenting the core results and scenarios outlined in the technical report was recorded and made available in three languages:

• English: Preparing for the 2025 dengue season: insights from predictive models;
• Spanish: Preparación para la temporada de dengue de 2025: perspectivas de los modelos predictivos;
• Portuguese: Preparação para a temporada de dengue 2025: perspectivas de modelos preditivos.