Results - IMDC 2025
The 2025 edition of the Second Infodengue-Mosqlimate Dengue Challenge (2nd IMDC Sprint) concluded with a final webinar held on October 31, 2025. This highly successful edition demonstrated global collaboration, featuring:
- 15 teams from various international locations.
- A contribution of 19 distinct predictive models for dengue forecasting.
💻 Technical Results and Documentation
Detailed documentation, including the performance metrics for individual and ensemble models, is publicly available on the project’s GitHub repository:
1. Individual Model Validation Results
- Repository Documentation: The main findings, key validation metrics, and performance tables for all 19 predictive models are presented here: https://github.com/Mosqlimate-project/2nd_IMDC_sprint_results/blob/main/readme.md
- Seminar Video: A recorded seminar detailing the initial validation results and comparative analysis is available here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YexrCASlqIE&t=1798s
2. Ensemble Model Analysis
The project utilized an ensemble model (a combination of top-performing models) to create a potentially more robust and accurate forecast.
- Ensemble Documentation: The methodology and specific performance results of the ensemble are documented here: https://github.com/Mosqlimate-project/2nd_IMDC_sprint_results/blob/main/ensemble_results.md
- Ensemble Presentation: The dedicated video presentation summarizing the ensemble results is available here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sb3lv3hGwGg
📈 Official Report and Policy Scenarios
The insights derived from the ensemble modeling were used to generate the “Relatório IMDC 2025”, a high-impact technical report for the Brazilian Ministry of Health. This report provided vital scenarios for the next dengue season (2025-2026), aiding public health preparedness.
- Technical Report (Portuguese Only): The official report detailing the seasonal scenarios is available on Zenodo: https://zenodo.org/records/17516518
Presentation of Report Results (Multilingual)
The seminar presenting the core results and scenarios outlined in the technical report was recorded and made available in three languages:
- English: Dengue Forecasts for 2026: Results of the 2nd InfoDengue–Mosqlimate Challenge;
- Spanish: Predicciones de Dengue para 2026: Resultados del 2º DesafÃo InfoDengue–Mosqlimate;
- Portuguese: Previsões de Dengue para 2026: Resultados do 2° Desafio InfoDengue-Mosqlimate.